Rajinikanth and others

In India, even the average man can pick out candidates who are on the cusp of starting political parties or have just founded them. It was 1994 and I was travelling by bus from The Hindu office, Chennai to my residence at Tambaram, a suburb nearly 27 km away. I was sitting next to an ordinary-looking man on a long seat -- that can hold three passengers -- on the left of the driver. Amid the journey, unprovoked, the fellow passenger declared in Tamil with admiration, “When MGR founded his party, he named it after Anna! MGR also inserted Anna’s picture on his party flag!” (“MGR, Anna peyarai katchikku vatchaar. Anna padathai katchi kodiyil soruginar”).

It was in 1994 that Vaiko founded his political party after his expulsion from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and he had named his party “Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam” (MDMK). The passenger, who admired MGR, was not happy with the name of Vaiko’s party. “The word ‘marumalarchi’ is a togue-twister,” he told me.

When M.G. Ramachandran (MGR), the late film actor founded his political party in 1972, he originally named it Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK). He later renamed it All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). He inserted a picture of Anna – C.N. Annadurai – in white, on his party flag. MGR was Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu from 1977 to 1987. The late Annadurai, who was one of the founders of the DMK, became Tamil Nadu Chief Minister in 1967.

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In November 2020, there was widespread speculation around charismatic Tamil film actor Rajinikanth starting his own political party. The chatter had gained traction as election to the State Assembly was slated to be held just months later, in May 2021. 

But Rajnikanth had announced his political aspirations years ago. On December 31, 2017, Rajinikanth had declared: “It is certain that I will enter politics.” However, after declaring that he would definitely enter politics, Rajinikanth constantly dropped hints that he was pretty reluctant to establish a party. It was obvious that his heart was not set on launching a new party, despite his fans and supporters pressuring him to do so. 

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One fine day in November 2020, a grocer arrived at my residence to buy old newspapers. As is my wont of striking up conversations with ordinary people on political developments, I asked the grocer on the likely impact Rajinikanth’s rumoured party will have on the two rival parties, the DMK and the AIADMK. The grocer replied with contempt in Tamil, “Let him start a party first.” When I rephrased the question, he said, “We will wait and find out whether Rajinikanth will launch a party.” On his way out, the grocer confidently predicted, “Rajinikanth will never start his political party.”

On December 3, 2020, Rajnikanth tweeted an upbeat message in Tamil, “A new party will be inaugurated in January. The date (for the party’s inauguration) will be announced on December 31. We will change; change everything. If not now, it is never.” He went on to add, “In the coming Assembly elections, we will win with the support of the people and we will conduct spiritual politics with honesty, transparency, secularism and without caste and religious bias. Miracles will happen.”

Some days later, I asked a wag about Rajinikanth’s announcement regarding his party's inauguration date. I received a nonchalant reply: “Rajinikanth will announce on December 31 that he is not going to start a party!”

The prediction came true, albeit two days early. On December 29, the actor announced --  citing the renal transplant he had secretly undergone in the US in 2016 and the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic -- that he had given up his plans to start a party and enter politics. He asked the people of Tamil Nadu to “pardon” him. 

If the actor’s earlier announcement had given fans a reason to celebrate -- by bursting crackers and distributing sweets -- his volte-face on December 29 deeply chagrined them. Many fans were even reduced to tears. Rajinikanth’s somersault, however, would have surely gladdened both, M.K. Stalin, DMK president and his political rival, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, the Chief Minister who heads the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu. They probably even heaved a sigh of relief, for there was no knowing whose vote bank Rajinikanth's party would eat into. 

While Stalin is heading a formidable alliance of several parties, the ruling AIADMK is also heading an alliance. The alliance headed by the DMK comprises the Congress, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India (CPI), the MDMK, Viduthalai Siruthaigal Katchi, the Indian Union Muslim League and another Muslim outfit called Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK). The AIADMK-led alliance comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) and others. Film actor Kamal Haasan, who had founded his party called Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) and was hoping to team up with Rajinikanth, was disappointed. Rajinikanth's announcement also put paid to the hopes of finding an alternative to the two Dravidian parties – the DMK and the AIADMK – ruling Tamil Nadu for the past 53 years.

If the DMK is confident that the alliance headed by it will be voted to power in the May elections and Stalin will become Chief Minister, there is some trouble on the way. Stalin’s estranged elder brother, M.K. Azhagiri, who had earlier been “dismissed” from the DMK, enlivened the state politics on January 3, 2021, with a prediction. Azhagiri, who had not been active in politics for the past few years, had truculently declared some days ago that his “contribution” to the coming Assembly elections would soon be on its way. At a meeting of his followers at Madurai, Azhagiri was confident that his brother Stalin “can never become a Chief Minister” and described his meeting his followers as “the first step in the battle against conspirators and traitors”. Azhagiri alleged that he was expelled from the DMK without the knowledge of his father, the late Chief Minister and then DMK President M. Karunanidhi and then DMK general secretary K. Anbazhagan. “It was I who got the post of the party treasurer for Stalin. I do not know why he betrayed me. Karunanidhi made Stalin the deputy Chief Minister only after consulting me”, Azhagiri claimed.

There is minor trouble brewing for the DMK on another front too -- in the form of two of its allies, the MDMK and the VCK. Their respective founders, Vaiko and Thol. Thirumavalavan said, separately, that their parties would like to contest the Assembly elections on their own symbols. Their assertion comes in the wake of the DMK reportedly insisting that the MDMK and the VCK candidates contest the polls on the DMK’s election symbol of the rising sun.

To return to Rajinikanth, what was remarkable was that both Chief Minister Palaniswami and Stalin appeared nonchalant to Rajinikant’s now aborted decision to launch a party. The two leaders did not bother to react when Rajinikanth announced on December 3, 2020, that his party would come into being in January. It appeared that they did not take his announcement seriously at all. It was obvious that Palaniswami and Stalin were sure that the actor had always been reluctant to float a party and would back out at the last minute, citing some excuse. Tamil Nadu Congress Committee president K.S. Alagiri contemptuously dismissed the actor’s claim and said, “Let him start the party first,” when reporters sought his reaction. 

Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam of the AIADMK merely mulled over the prospects of an alliance between the AIADMK and the party to be founded by Rajinikanth if there was an “opportunity” to do so.

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Rajinikanth’s announcement that he would launch a party was news that his fans had been waiting for the past 25 years; when he took his first political stand in 1996 and asked people in the state to vote out the Jayalalithaa government. “Even God cannot save Tamil Nadu if she returns to power in the Assembly elections", he had famously said then. He endorsed the alliance between the DMK, the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), founded by the late G.K. Moopanar and other parties. People voted for this alliance and the DMK headed by M. Karunanidhi formed the government. Ever since, his fans have made a sustained demand, urging Rajinikanth to establish his own party.

Following the tweet announcing the launch of his party, fans celebrated the actor's 70th birthday on December 12 with much enthusiasm. The superstar flew to Hyderabad the next day to resume shooting for his film “Annathe”, which is being produced by Sun Pictures, owned by Kalanidhi Maran. Kalanidhi Maran is the elder brother of Dayanidhi Maran, a Lok Sabha member from the DMK. The Maran brothers are closely related to Stalin. 

On December 15th, the shooting of “Annathe” resumed. However, eight days later, the shooting was halted because four members of the film crew tested positive for COVID-19. Rajinikanth himself suffered from severe blood pressure fluctuations and was admitted to Apollo Hospitals, Hyderabad. (He did not contract COVID-19.) On December 27, he was discharged from the hospital. The doctors advised him to give a wide berth to tense situations and not take part in demanding physical activities. 

On December 29, the film star issued a three-page statement in which he said that he considered the fluctuations in his blood pressure “a warning from the Almighty.” The actor -- as mentioned above -- had undergone a kidney transplant in 2016. With the raging COVID-19 pandemic and his being on immune-suppressant medication, his health might suffer a setback if he were to take part in electioneering. He did not want to make a “scapegoat” of those who would travel with him on his political journey. Rajinikanth, therefore, announced that he was unable to start a party and enter politics. “This decision will disappoint the Rajini Makkal Mandram functionaries, and the fans and the people who were expecting me to start a party. Please pardon me”, he said. 

 In an informed story aptly headlined, “Explained|Rajinikant’s political exit before entry”, published in The Hindu on December 30, 2020, D. Suresh Kumar wrote: “No other political script in the country was in the making for nearly three decades. Since the 1990s, reams of newsprint and reels of film have been devoted to speculating about his political entry. His supporters waited anxiously but patiently. To be fair to him, only on December 31, 2017, he categorically announced that he would launch party and field candidates in all 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu. His fans’ associations were integrated and converted into RMM as a prelude to his political party’s launch. Now he has backed out.”

Suresh Kumar, who is Deputy Resident Editor, The Hindu, Tamil Nadu, argued in his article that this decision of Rajinikanth was not entirely unexpected. The senior journalist noted, “As early as March this year [2020], he had indicated that he was a reluctant political entrant. He had declared that he would not be the Chief Ministerial candidate of his proposed party. Significantly, he added a political caveat that he would take the political plunge only when he saw a wave of resurgence among the people. In October, he appeared to prepare his supporters for an exit, confirming information about his fragile health condition, contained in a letter attributed to him. He, however, denied writing the letter. In subsequent meetings with RMM functionaries, he placed his health status before them. But throughout all this, he was clear that this was a ‘now or never moment’ for political change in Tamil Nadu. Since he was ageing, he wanted to run an electoral sprint and not a marathon.”

According to Suresh Kumar, two factors, other than COVID-19, could perhaps be attributed to the actor’s volte-face. One, the actor did not anticipate the AIADMK government headed by Palaniswami to last its term. “Second, Mr Rajinikanth propounded “spiritual politics”, which was interpreted as an extension of the BJP’s pro-Hindutva politics at a time when the national party’s image was at its lowest ebb in the Dravidian State.” Besides, the actor had acknowledged that facing the DMK and the AIADMK, whom he described as “political behemoths”, would not be an electoral cakewalk
for him. “However, he did nothing on the ground to accelerate his party formation, instead choosing to wait for the Assembly elections”, the journalist said. 

Indeed, for reasons best known to him, Rajinikanth chose not to contest the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the local body elections too. Despite announcing in 2017 that he would “definitely enter politics”, he did nothing for three years to launch his party. He was always on the horns of a dilemma regarding the formation of his party. If he said his sights were set only on the Assembly elections, he was buying time to somehow wriggle out.

He was also afraid of facing defeat at the hustings. On December 3, after tweeting at the auspicious time of 12.12 p.m. that he would launch a party, Rajinikanth met reporters outside his residence in Poes Garen, Chennai. He echoed his earlier remark that the entire “system” should be changed. He reiterated that everything needed to be changed and that he would be a small instrument of that change. He then airily added, “If I win [at the hustings], it will be people’s victory. If I lose, it will be people’s defeat.”

But that statement was a political faux pas. No aspiring politician would dare to say, albeit even unwittingly, that if he is defeated at his first outing at the hustings, it would be people’s defeat.  K. Sridhar, a political observer and a leading agent of the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), said, “Rajinikanth was afraid of being defeated in the polls. Nobody enters politics with the belief that he will win the very first election he contests.  If you are not prepared to lose in your first election, what kind of leader are you? It means you are not prepared to serve the people of Tamil Nadu. You are bothered only about your personal defeat.”

Sridhar pointed out that several other film actors had started parties in Tamil Nadu without worrying about winning their maiden election. This included MGR, Sivaji Ganesan, Vijayakant, Sarath Kumar, Kamal Haasan, T. Rajendar, Bhagyaraj and Seeman. In the composite Andhra Pradesh, it included matinee idols N.T. Rama Rao and Chiranjeevi. “Except MGR and NTR, others did not shine as politicians but they boldly entered the fray”, the former staff of The Hindu said. He referenced another remark by Rajinikanth -- that the actor would not make a Chief Ministerial candidate. “This stand of Rajinikanth's implies that if his party is defeated, it will not be his defeat. If his party wins at the hustings, he will then claim that lakhs of his fans and supporters were pressuring him to become the Chief Minister and so he will be the Chief Minister”, Sridhar said. 

Rajinikanth had a flawed understanding of several issues critical to the State. He tended to go against the grain of the popular opinion on many issues. On the feud between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu on the sharing of the Cauvery river water, the anti-Sterlite agitation, the eight-lane Chennai- Salem highway and demonetization, he made cavalier comments. Although Rajinikanth is a Maratha – his given name is Shivaji Rao Gaekwad – he belongs to Karnataka. When the widely respected Tamil film director Bharathiraja went on a fast demanding that Karnataka release the Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu, Rajinikanth wanted to know whether such agitations would bring the Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu. Rajinikanth was pilloried no end for this remark. Some days later, he sat on a day-long fast near the M.A. Chidambaram cricket stadium at Chepauk, Chennai, to press for the Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu. His fast became a cinematic extravaganza, with other film stars joining his fast or marking their presence, and stuntmen throwing a protective ring around him. He underestimated the popular mood against the functioning of the Sterlite plant at Tuticorin. When 13 persons were killed in police firing during the anti- Sterlite protests at Tuticorin, he remarked, “If protests are held for everything, Tamil Nadu will turn into a graveyard.” He supported the laying of the eight-lane highway from Chennai to Salem, fiercely opposed by several thousands of farmers who would lose their fertile agricultural land, coconut groves, banana plantations, mango gardens, irrigation wells, schools and so on to the project. He tweeted in support of the demonetization move by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Demonetisation was a sore issue in Tamil Nadu; one that led to the rout of the AIADMK-BJP-PMK alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. 

As things stand today, although Rajinikanth’s fans and supporters, and the BJP are deeply disappointed with his decision to not launch a political party, other major political parties seem relieved. The opinion was divided on whether he would eat into the votes of the DMK-led alliance or its rival, the AIADMK-headed alliance. 

Rajinikanth continues to remain an untested force in the political arena, for he has made his exit before his entry. Sans Rajinikanth’s party, it will be an interesting electoral battle to watch between these two alliances.